Frequency of Target Crashes: A Report

A preliminary analysis was conducted to estimate the annual frequency of crashes that would potentially be addressed by communication-based safety applications as part of the Intelligent Transportation Systems’ IntelliDriveSM safety systems program. These safety applications incorporate vehicle-to-vehicle communications or

vehicle-to-infrastructure cooperation to increase situational awareness and reduce or eliminate crashes through V2V and V2I data transmission that supports driver advisories, driver warnings, and vehicle and/or infrastructure controls. The analysis focused on crash avoidance systems that assist drivers in preventing imminent crashes. Such impending crashes usually arise within a relatively short period of time (e.g., under 10 seconds) from the drivers’ encounter with hazardous driving conditions.

This report estimates the annual frequency of three different types of target crashes that might be addressed with V2V and V2I safety applications based on the 2005-2008 General Estimates System crash databases. The three different crash types consist of light-vehicle, heavy-truck, and all-vehicle crashes. Light-vehicle crashes involve at least one light vehicle with gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) of 10,000 pounds or less. Heavy-truck crashes involve at least one heavy truck, single unit or multiple units, with GVWR over 10,000 pounds. All-vehicle crashes account for all crashes involving all motor vehicle platforms. Target crashes are measured by the number of police-reported crashes in each of these three crash types. This analysis excludes drivers with physiological impairment such as intoxication or drowsiness because such driver conditions are addressed by autonomous vehicle-based countermeasure systems.

The mapping of target crashes to each system category is performed using a set of pre-crash
scenarios that describe vehicle movements and critical events prior to the crash. To avoid double counting, target crashes are first determined for a primary system category and the remainder of the crash population is later assigned to the other system category. As a primary
countermeasure:

• V2V systems potentially address about 4,409,000 police-reported or 79 percent of allvehicle target crashes, 4,336,000 PR or 81 percent of all light-vehicle target crashes, and 267,000 PR or 71 percent of all heavy-truck target crashes annually.
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• V2I systems potentially address about 1,465,000 PR or 26 percent of all-vehicle target crashes, 1,431,000 PR or 27 percent of all light-vehicle target crashes, and 55,000 PR or 15 percent of all heavy-truck target crashes annually.
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• Combined V2V and V2I systems potentially address about 4,503,000 PR or 81 percent of all-vehicle target crashes, 4,417,000 PR or 83 percent of all light-vehicle target crashes, and 272,000 PR or 72 percent of all heavy-truck target crashes annually.

* IntelliDrive is a servicemark of the U.S. Department of Transportation

A Traffic Safety Fact From NHTSA